REALIGNMENT: Independence?

The next wave of realignment is coming. This series is focused on potential scenarios for Miami and the ACC.

Today, we will go way out on a limb… INDEPENDENCE.

Miami is currently a member of the Atlantic Coast conference. Unfortunately, our Canes have never lived up to competitive expectations in football. And the ACC has suffered for it. Today, the conference is fighting to keep relevance in college athletics.

The revenue distribution gap continues to widen between the B1G/SEC and the ACC/Big12, putting the long term in doubt for the both conferences. Inside the ACC, there is already dissension. Two schools have taken the conference to court and are expected to leave the conference when the exit fee is more palatable, probably in 2031. Five other schools have publicly expressed their concerns about the revenue gap. Unless something drastic happens before 2030, the likelihood of the conference imploding is high.

So, if the ACC implodes, what are Miami’s options?

We have examined a scenario where a small contingent of schools (7-10) leave the conference and move to the Big12. We have also examined a scenario where the ACC and Big12 merge and launch a Mega 40-school conference.

Today, we will examine another out-of-the-box scenario. Let’s call it “Back to the Future.”

For many decades Miami was an independent. In 1991, Miami became a member of the then Big East Conference. This move propelled Miami into the national spotlight with multiple conference and national championships in football. In 2004, Miami jumped to the Atlantic Coast Conference in hopes of continued competitive and financial success. It hasn’t happened.

So, let’s consider going back in time to INDEPENDENCE.

Could Miami seriously consider leaving the ACC and returning to independent status?

First, it could only happen if the ACC implodes under the weight of its own lack of bold leadership. For the conference to dissolve, it would take a vote of 50% or more of member schools to dissolve the conference.

If that were to happen, many of the schools would want to land in other conferences. But a hand full might also consider going the independent route.

Miami could consider such a move if they felt they could put together a consistent 12-game schedule they could sell to a media outlet.

For talking purposes, let’s assume Florida State and Clemson could not find a home in another conference. Doubtful, but let’s continue. If it did happen, Miami and the two other ACC decedents would join Notre Dame and UConn as college independents. These five schools could become a strategic scheduling alliance. A scheduling agreement to play each other annually would be a solid competitive foundation.

Are there other major brands that might consider independence?

USC is reportedly unhappy with their membership in the B1G and Penn State might be ready to come out of the shadows of Ohio State and Michigan. Remember, the Nittany Lions were independent back in the days with Miami. While doubtful because of the money they get from the B1G, it’s still possible. For our scenario, let’s assume USC and Penn State remain in the B1G.

If not, a roster of independents that included Notre Dame, Miami, FSU, UConn and Clemson might be VERY ATTRACTIVE to a media partner. Let’s say NBC/Peacock. Notre already has a contract to broadcast Irish home games (8) games in 2026. Let the Irish keep that contract but include the new independents on Notre Dame’s schedule.

2031 Potential Schedules

Notre Dame: Miami:

vs UConn vs. Bethune- Cookman

@ Clemson vs Tulane

vs Stanford @ UConn

@ Florida State @ Georgia Tech

vs. Purdue vs. Clemson

@ Michigan State @ SMU

vs. Boston College vs North Carolina

vs. BYU @ Virginia Tech

vs. Navy vs. USF

@ Miami vs Notre Dame

vs. Rice @ Florida Atlantic

vs. USC vs. Florida State

There would other attractive ACC schools that would need to fill their schedules. Perhaps Pittsburgh, Louisville, and SMU.

BOTTOM LINE:

The key to independence for Miami will rest with an attractive and consistent schedule of major brands. It comes down to money.

GO CANES!