REALIGNMENT OPTIONS: Move to Super 2

College football is expected to go through another wave of realignment in the early 2030s. Most pundits are predicting it will happen just prior to the next network media rights agreements, starting in 2030. Miami will attempt to stay positioned for the best possible outcome.

This series will explore a number of scenarios for the University of Miami.

What are Miami’s options?

In part one, we examined Miami staying in their current situation as members of the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC). In part two, we will consider the pros and cons of Miami leaving the ACC and the logical landing spots.

WHY MOVE?

While Miami continues to publicly support the ACC, the revenue gap continues to increase between the Big Ten, SEC and the ACC. Perhaps as much as $40M per year per school. One must ask can ACC schools continue to compete on the field of play with substantially smaller operating budgets (NIL)?

WHERE?

Is Miami quietly planning an alternative solution that requires a move to a Super 2 conference? Let’s say it’s possible. The potential options are the Big Ten and SEC conferences.

Big Ten Conference:

Currently the B1G has 18 member schools. IF they would consider another expansion, they would probably invite two new schools primarily for scheduling reasons. The logical schools would be Notre Dame and Miami.

PROs:

Both Notre Dame and Miami are members of the AACU, a traditional preference of the BigTen.

What conference wouldn’t want Notre Dame, probably the biggest brand in college football. The Irish have always maintained the desire for independence and a clear path to the national championship. However, that path has been getting narrower each year. The Irish were not invited to the College Football Playoffs this past season. Notre Dame must determine if the path is closing for future playoff berths.

Miami is also a national brand with five national championships. However, they have struggled over the past two decades to remain relevant on the field of play. That appears to be changing, as evidenced by their CFP title run this season, two straight 10-win season and a handsome NIL war chest. The Canes are also one of the most viewed teams in college football, as evidenced by 30.1M viewers of the championship game this season. Membership in a Super 2 conference would also enhance Miami on the recruiting trail. Finally, the B1G has long wanted a presence in the state of Florida.

CONs:

Notre Dame is already generating revenue at the same level as the Power 2 schools. Money may not be the primary driver in giving up their independence. And will their path to the playoffs be substantially easier playing a Big Ten schedule?

Miami is probably a better cultural fit in the BigTen but not so much geographically for our fans.

Southeast Conference (SEC)

The SEC consists of 16 member schools, primarily located in the southeastern region. It is also made up of primarily large state institutions. IF they would consider another expansion, they would probably invite two new schools primarily for scheduling reasons. The logical schools would be Clemson and Florida State, with Miami in the mix.

PROs:

The SEC is a good geographical fit for Miami. And the SEC may want to fend off intrusion into Florida by the Big Ten.

CONs:

The SEC is made up of primarily large state institutions, not the best fit for Miami. And the Florida Gators may block entry for recruiting reasons.

BOTTOM LINE:

Membership in a Power 2 conference would substantially increase Miami’s revenue and status on the recruiting trail but may narrow the path to the College Football Playoffs.

In part three of our series, we will consider Miami participating in the formation of a new conference or merger.

GO CANES!