Do Polls Truly Reflect The Best? - part 2

We are a quarter of the way into 2025 college football season. Miami is undefeated (3-0) and ranked #4 in the nation by the AP. However, there is growing debate over the AP Poll and the method used to determine a true Top 25.

The CaneReports decided to take a deep dive into the metrics that determine college football proficiency.

We asked ourselves...“Who are really the Top 10 teams in college football?”

We decided to examine the key mathematical metrics of the game that determines the success of a college program. In the best of worlds, we would examine the results of all 130+ teams. However, time and resources limited our exercise to the current top 10 ranked schools.

As of Monday, September 15th, here is the AP Top Ten.

1. Ohio State

2. Penn State

3. LSU

4. Miami

5. Georgia

6. Oregon

7. Florida State

8. Texas

9. Illinois

10. Texas A&M

Mythology: We decided to examine the eight key offensive and defensive metrics used to judge a team’s proficiency.

They say defense wins championships. Let’s see.

On defense, we looked at total yards allowed per game, average passing yards allowed per game, average rushing yards allowed per game and average points allowed per game.

Using industry game data, we awarded each of the above teams points in each metric in reverse order of success, with 10 points going to the best performance in that metric.

In part one of our series, we broke down AP Top 10 from an offensive perspective. In part two of our series, we break down the key defensive metrics.

DEFENSE:

Total Yards Per Game: Points

Penn State 224.0 10

Ohio State 227.7 9

Texas 245.0 8

Oregon 256.0 7

LSU 260.3 6

Illinois 268.3 5

Florida State 269.0 4

Miami 279.0 3

Georgia 299.7 2

Texas A&M 350.7 1

Passing Yards Per Game: Points

Ohio State 118.3 10

Penn State 123.3 9

Oregon 133.3 8

Florida State 173.0 6.5

Texas 173.0 6.5

Illinois 193.7 5

Miami 204.0 4

LSU 204.3 3

Texas A&M 211.7 2

Georgia 217.0 1

Rushing Yards Per Game: Points

LSU 56.0 10

Texas 72.0 9

Illinois 74.7 8

Miami 75.0 7

Georgia 82.7 6

Florida State 96.0 5

Penn State 100.7 4

Ohio State 109.3 3

Oregon 122.7 2

Texas A&M 139.0 1

Points Allowed Per Game: Points

Ohio State 5.3 10

Penn State 5.7 9

Illinois 7.7 8

LSU 9.0 7

Florida State 10.0 5.5

Oregon 10.0 5.5

Texas 10.3 4

Miami 13.0 3

Georgia 18.0 2

Texas A&M 28.7 1

TOTAL DEFENSE: Total Points

Ohio State 32 9.5

Penn State 32 9.5

Texas 27.5 8

Illinois 26 6.5

LSU 26 6.5

Oregon 22.5 5

Florida State 21 4

Miami 17 3

Georgia 11 2

Texas A&M 5 1

FINAL METRIC: WINS

At the end of the day, it’s all about winning. So, our final metric will be wins.. After only three weeks, this metric has little affect on our rankings. This metric will weigh heavier by the end of the regular season.

This metric will weigh heavier by the end of the regular season.

TOTAL WINS: Points

Ohio State 3

Penn State 3

LSU 3

Miami 3

Georgia 3

Oregon 3

Illinois 3

Texas A&M 3

Florida State 2

Texas 2

Our FINAL TOP 10:

It’s time to tally the net statistical measurements. Drum roll, please.

Team Offense Defense Wins Total

Ohio State 6 9.5 3 18.5

Oregon 9 5 3 17.0

Penn State 4 9.5 3 16.5

Florida State 10 4 2 16.0

Miami 8 3 3 14.0

Illinois 3 6.5 3 12.5

Texas 2 8 2 12.0

Texas A&M 7 1 3 11.0

LSU 1 6.5 3 10.5

Georgia 5 2 3 10.0

Final Comparison:

AP Poll: Our Ranking:

1 Ohio State Ohio State

2 Penn State Oregon

3 LSU Penn State

4 Miami Florida State

5 Georgia Miami

6 Oregon Illinois

7 Florida State Texas

8 Texas Texas A&M

9 Illinois LSU

10 Texas A&M Georgia

Assessments:

Ohio State: The most balanced team and clearly #1

Oregon: Potent offense and good defense

Penn State: Very strong defense but offensive questions.

Florida State: Very strong offense, but defensive questions.

Miami: Strong offense. Improved defense. Consistency?

Illinois: Surprise team. Good defense. Suspect offense.

Texas: Most disappointing. Good defense, but offense?

Texas A&M: Most improved team, but still defensive questions.

LSU: Good team but overrated due to lack of offense.

Georgia: Good team, but questions everywhere.

BOTTOM LINE:

The AP Poll is a ranking from the heart, while our statistical ranking is from the head. Both are good, but you need to judge for yourself who the Top 10 teams are at this juncture of the season.

GO CANES!

p.s. We’ll be back at mid-season with an expanded Top 25.